Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 17.734744 20.420462 23.578138 27.619546 32.736790 39.117927 47.873442
2025-02-23 14.307952 17.495649 21.602823 27.453537 35.883547 48.145720 68.554610
2025-03-02 12.397910 15.736946 20.297497 27.278114 38.308235 56.373859 91.828148
2025-03-09 11.207342 14.653235 19.586688 27.607255 41.352205 66.512577 125.017166
2025-03-16 9.992731 13.329880 18.264760 26.637194 41.867632 72.260695 153.845994
2025-03-23 9.224777 12.544196 17.609190 26.573943 43.911661 81.880665 202.514287
2025-03-30 8.354304 11.501585 16.402545 25.323275 43.309614 85.387335 237.628420
2025-04-06 7.577478 10.528208 15.193479 23.867408 41.928784 86.470092 266.527396
2025-04-13 6.970627 9.769183 14.258116 22.775962 41.079125 88.672426 305.305253
2025-04-20 7.094122 10.176505 15.318380 25.643371 49.926745 124.106831 636.386425
2025-04-27 6.897001 10.038020 15.408564 26.594229 54.549810 150.528811 1115.075592
2025-05-04 6.437416 9.423654 14.580612 25.483313 53.434120 154.438089 1384.221481
2025-05-11 6.245395 9.267268 14.609224 26.312951 58.239705 189.785275 3125.581944
2025-05-18 5.951731 8.913771 14.235056 26.188622 60.291665 215.706025 6830.055081
2025-05-25 5.683096 8.583060 13.869751 26.022327 62.190342 244.418000 20501.709168
2025-06-01 5.489792 8.371197 13.713674 26.330039 65.832393 292.055172 443797.483933
2025-06-08 5.190874 7.949436 13.103115 25.423350 64.914801 305.635958 NaN
2025-06-15 4.999372 7.711143 12.842174 25.364199 67.154583 352.179541 NaN
2025-06-22 4.718760 7.293754 12.184401 24.193751 64.766776 351.484368 NaN
2025-06-29 4.438931 6.865467 11.479232 22.829193 61.312760 336.152785 NaN
2025-07-06 4.207776 6.517827 10.922008 21.804689 59.033004 331.999564 NaN
2025-07-13 4.316130 6.806431 11.709434 24.493470 73.348553 588.827490 NaN
2025-07-20 4.262064 6.783856 11.833173 25.383170 80.487104 819.796772 NaN